current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0961 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.294 False
psi 0.1428 False
delta_h1 -1.3948 True
delta_h2 4.311 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 0.7954 True
price 0.8917 True
risk 0.0 False
-- 
number of parameters:  10
number of free parameters:  4
current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0961 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.294 False
psi 0.1428 False
delta_h1 -1.3948 True
delta_h2 4.311 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 0.7954 True
price 0.8917 True
risk 0.0 False
- using these moments:
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.0028589543192395974
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.003643700780684088
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.04325931942694289
grad2 1.0527310940896781 0.021387151314867122
grad3 1.0655399446658953 0.02204949645933151
grad4 1.077596374284592 0.020756371851644063
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.007039205768529589
f =  61.30781461611985 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09565309497333839
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478797
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4479272059875663
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0054696430276269
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0107847477300869
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0181139192484163
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8111025108708931
f =  59.8649477456136 , pars =  [-1.29479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09299007565680015
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478807
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4865501805625294
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0058889918885592
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0110478240108471
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0159074302543265
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7947659188663744
f =  42.77880518493277 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.41099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08951258976437967
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878568630131096
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4036090383706018
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.006890121991609
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0133381923813474
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0217783918116905
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7951990933829574
f =  858.1354806651904 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.8954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.07801391983856854
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.986579758147879
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.6047768324021628
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.00499123332099
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0090368696915561
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.012303830119999
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.9926101486586679
f =  211.55386903442425 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.99168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.12370546879319817
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.986579758147879
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.23442915201370307
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.005989972972368
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0114684505432314
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.021259869992197
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8019945787054737
f =  98.29368699843226 , pars =  [-1.49479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.1086059755237721
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478805
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.323294761072079
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.006148863181963
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0121155469023486
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0229555831379218
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7883807764042954
f =  95.61341296295409 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.21099113  0.7954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.1055123130387546
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9851683389914966
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4721204135533689
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0055793747542532
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.01105076989844
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.018555857212272
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8049440653720239
f =  1187.8285535633595 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.6954149   0.89168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.1460311463814099
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.986579758147881
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.17464203518142157
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0052433722264198
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0105308942134834
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.019764460266869
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.6115045535485987
f =  45.335192006687834 , pars =  [-1.39479202  4.31099113  0.7954149   0.79168889]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09332786947708532
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9865797581478798
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.37663445484795083
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0049028448700392
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0093588786179135
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.016411674130123
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7953595203492142
f =  44.49530651331958 , pars =  [-1.34306001  4.47044824  0.80383057  0.83071491]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08268458084599425
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9885578141793867
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3305670341760253
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.005500176238679
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0101896888356126
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0173390879197977
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8117519952545598
f =  75.51199454975948 , pars =  [-1.39232176  4.39375027  0.80345423  0.84551509]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.081993200153065
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9876456897221226
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.49317548354955887
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0056068588526836
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0104276384122954
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.014747154135855
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8263138627420734
f =  49.742253432077185 , pars =  [-1.38316651  4.40701915  0.79519921  0.89398548]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09176085339448652
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878085348436231
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.3887437892050468
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0071988225078414
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0140298859155403
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0232874343094975
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.779754669064371
f =  54.16481171764462 , pars =  [-1.40040779  4.43444967  0.80173842  0.89347023]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08524377279223164
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9881384080836283
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.41316478395518946
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0061207388204767
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0118691854588822
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0196429043654878
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8206595209355382
f =  47.71322327697315 , pars =  [-1.39521299  4.40908769  0.80519545  0.89242421]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08843835947334514
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878337273643668
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4083002047812121
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.006597430703099
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.01272728141984
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0210466782967555
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8138046865305855
f =  42.584137460316164 , pars =  [-1.40301043  4.40599403  0.79701214  0.88946726]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09042810622799662
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9877960306679995
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.39473310568717807
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068754377264668
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0134020084122521
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0222710438424136
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7944767797564847
f =  49.525084534826405 , pars =  [-1.4012641   4.40129626  0.78835874  0.88946411]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09162102820408272
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9877385644518071
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4030206024323919
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068627300629671
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0132716837481561
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0217750938152865
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.78262033196038
f =  67.12437793098896 , pars =  [-1.39709128  4.39894718  0.79883398  0.88600509]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.0858554665570336
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9877097275213191
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.44176601318029124
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0057649511073896
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0110891181267094
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0182162004273903
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8293165665223808
f =  42.67800422190199 , pars =  [-1.39806246  4.41109091  0.79779197  0.88247217]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08815527854793266
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878580746193936
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.40797435581415104
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0065057339735375
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0126430556982702
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0209067978223256
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8003184788416688
f =  50.984028943587695 , pars =  [-1.41179287  4.40887421  0.79466663  0.89247922]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.09280176385997047
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878311297905644
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.38122751323363757
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0072759543473566
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.01407849277947
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.023181649855922
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7794569571253699
f =  41.88385222867189 , pars =  [-1.40639613  4.41425068  0.80125466  0.88792918]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08892181167776529
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878963798159011
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4001204362636068
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068094162640218
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0132276744011202
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0219398184928137
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7994929333745029
f =  56.33327726506212 , pars =  [-1.4096124   4.41431106  0.80143721  0.87846247]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.0856712784717881
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878971105378141
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.42525132847128294
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0061493481879697
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0119195229707485
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0195905436246815
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8219570320153684
f =  57.52163608865311 , pars =  [-1.40210707  4.41585492  0.80242167  0.88956273]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08597311419663554
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.987915781344283
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4335410362425222
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062385226048005
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0121057424822575
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0197348924195968
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8220494627565059
f =  52.32898587788985 , pars =  [-1.40705421  4.41525558  0.8015469   0.88811415]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08652813301963563
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9879085365807714
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4169622429968645
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062285223012208
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0120979152998697
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.020002953348807
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8188034109058369
f =  42.9950707829731 , pars =  [-1.40651527  4.4117906   0.80161647  0.88769921]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08943072470844589
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878665672449524
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4061064755864349
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068474433634231
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.013254673051854
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0216773418344083
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8000492089286179
f =  49.70686922799826 , pars =  [-1.40599119  4.41477102  0.80164489  0.88728654]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08733296006520803
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9879026761761934
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.41314842794780454
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0063939378689435
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.012346174274996
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0202465340341205
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8159855018596005
f =  50.86813887247051 , pars =  [-1.40625054  4.41397305  0.80030708  0.88799089]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08660481387949524
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878930190348586
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4219872282837642
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0063325880061313
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0123257317651504
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0203750565095044
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8163888665012033
f =  53.64835658424937 , pars =  [-1.4071181   4.41383436  0.80101933  0.88842923]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08642987111354108
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878913397857293
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.42441351421253404
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062049626688343
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.012022525305537
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0196920848245614
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8191643593542853
f =  52.57946987697073 , pars =  [-1.40587487  4.41395009  0.80169774  0.88859372]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08662365371706443
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878927410105864
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.41984594724969704
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062848288116821
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.012096239676421
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0198624092078918
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8186550567563364
f =  53.41736676887778 , pars =  [-1.40682014  4.41418216  0.80124951  0.88702614]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08607798765920067
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878955503830796
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4255204009914548
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0063060182025965
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.012273887509772
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0202108731919286
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8190069737061555
f =  52.32554073547613 , pars =  [-1.4055679   4.41475574  0.80104189  0.88804615]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08654723666770826
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9879024913050097
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4207142033422102
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062391890343556
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0120338300439178
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0198074396622723
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8181565632397954
f =  53.01055018169978 , pars =  [-1.40632567  4.41329356  0.80144939  0.88772661]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08698704373847987
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878847896551345
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4181911559133239
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062462911613492
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0121262296143048
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0200470636414285
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8193825064855003
f =  54.19408811123296 , pars =  [-1.40637484  4.41437212  0.80171455  0.88792014]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08679471327008294
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878978495578746
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.42270755309879865
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062317290768994
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0119969463911298
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0197193244009748
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.819955964560734
f =  51.958209856553985 , pars =  [-1.40645816  4.41434244  0.80124099  0.88797066]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08642646476077236
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878974903413555
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4225954850681382
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.006374704893223
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0123858560130576
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0204447130562941
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8177778282279434
f =  53.864741955590794 , pars =  [-1.40622599  4.41412916  0.80124464  0.88781569]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08631219465030071
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878949089099901
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4295378198023853
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.006234791618582
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0119717400150772
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.019423680471158
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8185110849494023
f =  52.04126677097143 , pars =  [-1.40644582  4.41425759  0.80124805  0.88784293]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08650762098798648
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.987896463377663
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.41801548590726506
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062114932471276
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.012113598380504
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0201414992060855
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8183808238924708
f =  53.509702227010095 , pars =  [-1.40639156  4.4141783   0.80126909  0.8879965 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08642968980127391
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878955036588863
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4212763984218285
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062717169681665
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0121609808984104
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0199358772015181
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8195976785491079
f =  51.891518516893136 , pars =  [-1.40639227  4.41423592  0.8011561   0.88793644]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08649150735266065
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878962010978772
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.41567610428405916
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0063117434831257
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0122928532930318
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0204030568348945
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8187133837830034
f =  41.833769151404596 , pars =  [-1.4063143   4.41430388  0.80127581  0.88792405]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.0891841343324661
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878970236546769
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.39787314119143796
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0068125451287995
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0132244153681145
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0219340243639436
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.7990366489242317
f =  51.67169749801138 , pars =  [-1.40623324  4.41434549  0.80124175  0.88794724]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08668363588699682
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878975273129817
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.41599148672769487
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0061991725358783
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0120763126175445
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0200666645638654
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8181569521540448
f =  52.59797701136673 , pars =  [-1.40636047  4.41425957  0.8013509   0.8879077 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08654029421831565
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878964873729869
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4208995787784205
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062615943097564
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0120580940494364
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0198020719785608
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8184876159066277
f =  91.3344029245541 , pars =  [-1.40627136  4.4142302   0.80125498  0.88787616]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.0835503096297504
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878961318753585
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.4413046134555168
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0055606710437917
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0107993808598172
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0178899244797615
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8440588983397002
f =  51.814318217166175 , pars =  [-1.40631731  4.41438439  0.80129736  0.88797923]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.08578499999999999 0.08652091063759848
trans_fromgood 0.972525418161677 0.9878979980540716
trans_frombad 0.2995210355450012 0.41437282948131526
grad2 1.0527310940896781 1.0062379681678417
grad3 1.0655399446658953 1.0121249969772783
grad4 1.077596374284592 1.0200256412676942
tfp 0.7979621824232888 0.8186200266500668
estimation did converge, now computing standard errors...
             value   free        se
name                               
sigma     2.096055  False       NaN
beta      0.970000  False       NaN
phi       0.294007  False       NaN
psi       0.142842  False       NaN
delta_h1 -1.406314   True  0.229920
delta_h2  4.414304   True  0.028108
eta       0.000000  False       NaN
tfp       0.801276   True  0.011992
price     0.888924   True  0.020479
risk      0.000000  False       NaN
